What Else? Predictions…

I’ll admit, I’ve been back and forth and round on round on whether or not to throw my own predictions out into the wilderness.  Every year, everyone feels the need to voice their opinion, before a single game has been played, until it becomes as so much white noise.

But what the hey, everyone else is doing it.  My own system uses statistical models based on the career paths of players with high similarity scores, much like PECOTA, but mine is influenced more by the depth of individual teams’ farm systems.  Therefore, teams with shallow systems tend to fare worse than teams with stronger systems.

The methodology is still being tweaked, but here we go:

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A #3 draft pick actually sounds pretty good to me right about now.
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7 comments

  1. astrosfaninexile

    Hmmm…. I’m still mulling over where I think that the Astros will land, but I’m going to put them more than one game over the Nationals! I like to look at all the numbers and then go with gut feelings. (Kind of the same unscientific process that I hated when it was used for decision making by the previous administration.)

    In the meantime, I just posted lots of pix from the March 22 Astros-Nats game on my photo album. (http://astrosfaninexile.com/PhotoAlbum-SpringTraining09-MAR18.html) Enjoy!

  2. roundrock15

    Don’t sell the Nationals short, they’ve got an outfield of Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge, and Elijah Dukes (well, technically it’s Austin Kearns in right, but that won’t last,) plus Ryan Zimmerman, Jesus Flores, and Christian Guzman. They can score a lot of runs.

    Their pitching is getting better. Bergmann will start the year in Triple-A, but he may emerge. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stephen Strasburg pitch on the major league team THIS YEAR.

    http://houston.mlblogs.com

  3. roundrock15

    In all honesty, if every one of these predictions turns out to be true – or even half of them – I will videotape myself doing a monkey dance and post it on this blog.

  4. astrosfaninexile

    Okay – I’ll cheer for the Nats (except when it affects the Astros) and we’ll see what happens. I might as well – they’re just a subway ride from my office. I could go to their games on nights when the Astros aren’t playing.

    Meanwhile, I’ll post some predictions that are entirely based on gut feelings, whimsy, and team likes/dislikes on my blog, and then we can see which approach turns out to be more accurate. For instance, I really really hate the Mets (sibling rivalry from our Astros childhood). In my list they are going down… My family went straight from Ellis Island to Boston, so the Sox are good. And of course, the Astros are going to win 90 games this year, or so I hear. HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    I would like to see that monkey dance. Could you do it at Spring Training next year?

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